Economic forecasts Summarization Prompt

# Economic Forecasts Summarization Prompt ## Background & Context Economic forecasts are analytical reports that predict future economic conditions over specific time horizons (short-term, medium-term, or long-term). They are typically created by economists, financial institutions, government agencies (like central banks, treasury departments), international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD), and specialized economic research firms. These forecasts are consumed by government policymakers, business executives, investors, financial analysts, and academics who need to understand potential economic trends to inform decision-making, risk management, and strategic planning. ## Report Structure & Components Economic forecasts typically include: - Executive summary/key findings - GDP growth projections (overall and by sector) - Inflation outlook and expectations - Labor market forecasts (unemployment rates, job creation, wage growth) - Interest rate and monetary policy predictions - Exchange rate projections - Fiscal policy analysis and government spending forecasts - Trade balance and current account projections - Industry-specific outlooks - Consumer spending and business investment forecasts - Housing market projections - Risk analysis section (upside and downside risks) - Regional or country-specific breakdowns (for global forecasts) - Methodological notes and assumptions - Historical data comparisons and trend analysis ## Critical Information to Extract Focus on extracting: - Headline GDP growth figures for the forecast period - Significant revisions from previous forecasts (especially directional changes) - Core inflation projections - Unemployment rate forecasts - Key interest rate predictions - Major risk factors identified (both upside and downside) - Confidence levels or probability distributions around central forecasts - Specific policy recommendations or implications - Sector-specific projections that show significant deviation from overall trends - Turning points in economic cycles (recession predictions, recovery timelines) - Comparison to consensus forecasts from other sources - Underlying assumptions that drive the forecast (commodity prices, geopolitical conditions) ## Stakeholder Priorities Different stakeholders need different emphasis: - **Executives**: Focus on business impact, consumer behavior changes, and strategic implications. Emphasize medium to long-term trends that affect business planning. - **Investors**: Highlight market implications, asset class projections, and timing of economic turning points. Include interest rate trajectories and their effects on different investment categories. - **Policymakers**: Emphasize policy implications, social impacts (unemployment, inequality), and fiscal sustainability. Include detailed sectoral breakdowns and regional disparities. - **Operational Managers**: Focus on near-term projections affecting supply chains, pricing, and labor markets. Include cost inflation indicators and consumer demand predictions. - **Risk Managers**: Highlight probability distributions, alternative scenarios, and potential shock events. Emphasize tail risks and stress test parameters. ## Output Format Guidelines Structure the summary as follows: 1. **Executive Overview** (2-3 sentences capturing the most critical headline figures and directional trends) 2. **Key Projections** (5-7 bullet points of the main numeric forecasts with brief contextual notes) 3. **Notable Changes** (3-4 bullet points highlighting significant revisions or changes from previous forecasts) 4. **Risk Assessment** (3-5 bullet points on major upside and downside risks, with probability indicators where available) 5. **Sector Highlights** (4-6 bullet points on industries or sectors with noteworthy projections) 6. **Policy Implications** (3-4 bullet points on monetary, fiscal, or regulatory implications) 7. **Methodological Context** (1-2 bullet points on key assumptions or methodological factors that significantly influence the forecasts) Total length should be 350-500 words for typical forecasts, expanding to 600-750 words for more complex global forecasts with multiple regional breakdowns. ## Special Considerations - Pay attention to confidence intervals and probabilistic language (e.g., "60% probability of recession by Q3 2024") - Note the difference between nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) figures - Be aware of seasonal adjustments in data - Differentiate between baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios - Understand technical terms like "output gap," "NAIRU," "potential GDP," and "quantitative easing" - Recognize that forecasts often have inherent biases and tend to underestimate extreme events - Maintain awareness of the forecaster's historical accuracy and any institutional biases - Distinguish between leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators - Identify when consensus forecasts may be creating "herding" behavior - Consider the political context that may influence some government economic forecasts ## Sample Output Structure # Summary: [Title of Economic Forecast Report] ## Executive Overview [2-3 sentence summary of the overall economic outlook, key growth numbers, and major directional trends] ## Key Projections • GDP Growth: [X]% for [year], [comparison to previous year] • Inflation: [X]% [core/headline] by [timeframe], driven by [key factors] • Unemployment: [X]% by [timeframe], reflecting [underlying dynamics] • Interest Rates: [Central bank] expected to [raise/lower/hold] to [X]% by [timeframe] • [Other key metrics relevant to this specific forecast] ## Notable Changes • [Significant revision from previous forecast with explanation] • [Changing trend or new development affecting the outlook] • [Shift in timing of key economic events (recession, recovery, etc.)] ## Risk Assessment • Downside Risk: [Description of major risk factor with probability if available] • Upside Potential: [Description of positive scenario with conditions] • [Additional risk factors as relevant] ## Sector Highlights • [Industry/sector]: [Specific projection and rationale] • [Industry/sector]: [Specific projection and rationale] • [Continue for key sectors highlighted in the report] ## Policy Implications • Monetary Policy: [Expected central bank actions and timeline] • Fiscal Policy: [Government spending/deficit projections and impacts] • [Other relevant policy considerations] ## Methodological Context • [Key assumption or limitation affecting interpretation] • [Important methodological consideration]